Application of Macroecological Theory to Predict Effects of Climate Change on Global Fisheries Potential

W. W. L. Cheung, C. Close, V. Lam, R. Watson, D. Pauly, (2008). Marine Ecology Progress Series 365, 187-197.

Global changes are shaping the life history and biogeography of marine species, which then affects their fisheries. Macroecology theories, which deal with large scale relationships between life history and biogeography, can be used to develop models to predict effects of global changes on marine species and hence on their fisheries. Firstly, based on theories of allometric scaling of metabolism and trophic energetic, we develop a theoretical model that relates maximum catch potential from a species with its trophic level, geographic range, mean primary production within the species’ range, and the fraction that is exploited at the geographic range. Secondly, using this theoretical model and data from 1,000 species of exploited marine fishes and invertebrates, we analyze the empirical relationship between species’ approximated maximum catch potential, their life history, and biogeography variables. The empirical model has high explanatory power and agrees with expectations from theory. Although problems in the original data and the imprecision of model parameters result in high variance between the empirical model and the data, predictions of relative changes in catch potential under climate change-induced changes in biogeography should be robust to uncertainties. In the future, this empirical model can be combined with bioclimate envelope model to predict the socio-economic impacts of climate change on marine fisheries, and this is illustrated here with an example pertaining to the small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis, Sciaendae) from the East China Sea.

10.3354/meps07414, http://www.ecomarres.com/downloads/cc1.pdf