D. Pauly, J. Alder, E. Bennett, V. Christensen, P. Tyedmers, R. Watson, (2003). Science 302, 1359-1361.
Formal analyses of long- term global marine fisheries prospects have yet to be performed, as fisheries research focuses on local, species-specific management issues. Extrapolation of present trends implies expansion of bottom fisheries into deeper waters, serious impact on biodiversity, and declining global catches, the last possibly aggravated by fuel cost increases. Examination of four scenarios, covering various societal development choices suggests that the negative trends now besetting fisheries can be turned around, and their supporting ecosystems rebuilt, at least partly.